Monday, February 6, 2012

Weekly Breakdown: Week 7

Recaps for Thursdays games can be found right here. I'm not going to individually recap Saturday's games, though. So, I'll present the Efficiency Margins instead.


RkTeamPaceOEDEEMLast WkChange
1Hillsdale62.31.160.980.1810
2Wayne State63.11.150.980.1620
3Findlay66.61.151.020.1230
4Michigan Tech61.91.111.010.1040
5Northwood64.61.071.000.0650
6Grand Valley State60.81.040.980.05104
7Ferris State63.81.040.990.056-1
8Ashland66.51.061.07-0.0191
9Saginaw Valley State67.30.981.01-0.037-2
10Lake Superior State68.01.001.05-0.048-2
11Tiffin69.41.001.10-0.09110
12Northern Michigan65.00.951.07-0.12120
13Lake Erie66.30.901.03-0.13130
14Ohio Dominican68.50.901.14-0.25140


Thursday, February 2, 2012

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Weekly Breakdown: Week 6

I missed last weeks previews and recaps and don't have a ton of time to do any preview this week, either. Still, here are the efficiency ratings for each team during conference play. These are not using my regressed shooting rates. Pace is possessions per game. OE is Offensive Efficiency or points scored per possession. DE is Defensive Efficiency or points allowed per possession. EM is Efficiency Margin and just the difference between OE and DE.


RkTeamPaceOEDEEMLast WkChange
1Hillsdale62.81.180.990.1932
2Wayne State63.91.150.990.1620
3Findlay66.91.161.010.1541
4Michigan Tech62.21.121.020.101-3
5Northwood65.01.051.010.0550
6Ferris State63.81.031.000.0471
7Saginaw Valley State67.91.001.000.00114
8Lake Superior State68.71.001.03-0.0291
9Ashland66.81.061.08-0.038-1
10Grand Valley State57.40.971.04-0.076-4
11Tiffin69.61.001.10-0.10132
12Northern Michigan65.50.931.04-0.1110-2
13Lake Erie66.30.911.06-0.1512-1
14Ohio Dominican68.60.911.15-0.25140
---------------
Average65.41.04

Monday, January 23, 2012

Weekly Breakdown: Week 5

Last week I posted efficiency ratings for each team in my Weekly Breakdown. Those were based on regressed shooting rates, and while I still find them to be very useful, I've elected to post the unadjusted efficiency rates. This is more telling of what actually happened. Instead, I'll be blending the regressed efficiency rates with un-regressed rates to create my Pythagorean win percentages which I will use in my match-up probabilities. All numbers are conference-only.

On to the standings.


RkTeamOEFFDEFFEM
1Michigan Tech1.140.990.15
2Wayne State1.120.990.13
3Hillsdale1.131.010.12
4Findlay1.131.030.10
5Northwood1.071.010.05
6Grand Valley State1.020.980.03
7Ferris State1.031.000.03
8Ashland1.071.050.03
9Lake Superior State0.991.04-0.05
10Northern Michigan0.961.00-0.05
11Saginaw Valley State0.951.00-0.05
12Lake Erie0.921.00-0.08
13Tiffin0.991.10-0.11
14Ohio Dominican0.901.14-0.24
Average1.03


The Recap: January 21st

Wayne State 71, Ohio Dominican, 48

The Four Factors

Ohio Dominican started the contest going 2-for-20 from the field and the game got out of hand very early. It was 24-6 with just under 6:50 remaining and the Warriors never looked back. Wayne State didn't miss a ton of shots but when they did, they rebounded their own misses with fierce regularity. The Warriors forward Bryan Coleman led the way with 27 points while ODU's only scorer in double figures was Aaron Gibbs.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

The Recap: January 19th

Lake Superior State 73, Lake Erie 69 

The Four Factors

Lake Erie had the better night shooting the basketball but Lake State's advantage on the offensive glass and in getting to the free throw line spurred the Lakers to a four point win on the road. LSSU led 40-27 at the half but let a lead slip away and wound up outscored by nine in the second half. Lakers guard Derek Billing poured in 19 points to go with four rebounds, five assists and a steal. Cameron Metz had 16 off the bench for Lake Superior as well. LEC was led by Nate Tait and Riley Thomas who each scored 17.

Scanning The Docket: January 19th

I gave a quick breakdown of how the teams are performing in a tempo-free environment yesterday, as well as listing win probabilities for each match up. Now, it's time to go a little bit more in-depth about each game on tonight's docket. Games are listed in order of start time, as found on the GLIAC website.

Saginaw Valley at Ashland - Projected Winner: Saginaw Valley, 53%
Tip-off: 7:30 PM

The cross-division game marks the first time the Cardinals and the Eagles have met this year. Ashland's sporting the sixth best offensive efficiency in the conference at 1.07 points per possession. The problem for the Eagles has been on the defensive end of the court where they are allowing the second most points per possession at 1.09. SVSU, meanwhile, sports a below-average offense with above-average defense. Teams are only scoring a point per trip against the Cardinals. Saginaw Valley, though, are only scoring 1.02 PPP, a bit below the league average of 1.04. Saginaw likes to shoot from beyond the arc but Ashland opponents have only been hitting at a 32.9% clip from deep which is below the conference average of about 35%. Ashland's been fourth-worst in GLIAC play against shots inside the arc, however, meaning if Saginaw Valley is able to get into the paint -- not something they do a lot of -- they can have some success.