GLIAC Breakdown

As a tempo-free advocate, I've calculated the tempo-free statistics for all of the GLIAC teams using conference-only data. Here's a good reference as to what tempo-free statistics are and why they are incredibly useful over per-game metrics.

Team	Off Eff	Def Eff	Eff Mar
Ferris State	1.11	0.99	0.12
Wayne State	1.10	1.02	0.08
Findlay	1.09	1.02	0.07
Hillsdale	1.08	1.02	0.06
Grand Valley State	1.04	1.01	0.04
Saginaw Valley State	1.02	1.00	0.02
Michigan Tech	1.07	1.06	0.01
Northwood	1.08	1.07	0.01
Ashland	1.07	1.09	-0.01
Lake Erie	0.97	0.99	-0.02
Lake Superior State	1.00	1.06	-0.06
Northern Michigan	1.00	1.07	-0.07
Tiffin	1.01	1.10	-0.10
Ohio Dominican	0.94	1.08	-0.15
Average	1.04

Off Eff = Points Scored Per Offensive Possession
Def Eff = Points Allowed Per Defensive Possession
Eff Mar = Difference Between Off Eff and Def Eff


I know that Hillsdale is 9-0 in conference play and has just one loss on the season, however my ratings are based on regressed shooting rates, as well. Because of this, Ferris gets a big boost and Hillsdale comes down due to their very good shooting rates.

Using this, I can generate probabilities of each team winning against a conference opponent. Below are those probabilities.

Away	Homes	Winner	Prob
Saginaw	Ashland	Saginaw	0.472
Northwood	Ohio Dominican	Northwood	0.218
Ferris St	Michigan Tech	Ferris St.	0.305
Grand Valley	Northern Michigan	Grand Valley	0.302
Lake State	Lake Erie	Lake Erie	0.654
Wayne State	Tiffin	Wayne State	0.200
Hillsdale	Findlay	Findlay	0.586

I've used the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to generate a predicted win percentage. Using these win percentages, I've used the Log5 method to determine the chance of each team winning. I've kicked in a 5% bonus for home court advantage -- that's just my gut feeling on how much it should be; it very well may be higher or lower than that.

Lock of the Night: Wayne State over Tiffin.
Game of the Night: Saginaw Valley at Ashland.

I'll be interested to track Hillsdale's performance for the rest of the GLIAC season to see if their overall record and tempo-free profile start to mesh.