Weekly Breakdown: Week 7

Recaps for Thursdays games can be found right here. I'm not going to individually recap Saturday's games, though. So, I'll present the Efficiency Margins instead.

Rk	Team	Pace	OE	DE	EM	Last Wk	Change
1	Hillsdale	62.3	1.16	0.98	0.18	1	0
2	Wayne State	63.1	1.15	0.98	0.16	2	0
3	Findlay	66.6	1.15	1.02	0.12	3	0
4	Michigan Tech	61.9	1.11	1.01	0.10	4	0
5	Northwood	64.6	1.07	1.00	0.06	5	0
6	Grand Valley State	60.8	1.04	0.98	0.05	10	4
7	Ferris State	63.8	1.04	0.99	0.05	6	-1
8	Ashland	66.5	1.06	1.07	-0.01	9	1
9	Saginaw Valley State	67.3	0.98	1.01	-0.03	7	-2
10	Lake Superior State	68.0	1.00	1.05	-0.04	8	-2
11	Tiffin	69.4	1.00	1.10	-0.09	11	0
12	Northern Michigan	65.0	0.95	1.07	-0.12	12	0
13	Lake Erie	66.3	0.90	1.03	-0.13	13	0
14	Ohio Dominican	68.5	0.90	1.14	-0.25	14	0

Weekly Breakdown: Week 6

I missed last weeks previews and recaps and don't have a ton of time to do any preview this week, either. Still, here are the efficiency ratings for each team during conference play. These are not using my regressed shooting rates. Pace is possessions per game. OE is Offensive Efficiency or points scored per possession. DE is Defensive Efficiency or points allowed per possession. EM is Efficiency Margin and just the difference between OE and DE.

Rk	Team	Pace	OE	DE	EM	Last Wk	Change
1	Hillsdale	62.8	1.18	0.99	0.19	3	2
2	Wayne State	63.9	1.15	0.99	0.16	2	0
3	Findlay	66.9	1.16	1.01	0.15	4	1
4	Michigan Tech	62.2	1.12	1.02	0.10	1	-3
5	Northwood	65.0	1.05	1.01	0.05	5	0
6	Ferris State	63.8	1.03	1.00	0.04	7	1
7	Saginaw Valley State	67.9	1.00	1.00	0.00	11	4
8	Lake Superior State	68.7	1.00	1.03	-0.02	9	1
9	Ashland	66.8	1.06	1.08	-0.03	8	-1
10	Grand Valley State	57.4	0.97	1.04	-0.07	6	-4
11	Tiffin	69.6	1.00	1.10	-0.10	13	2
12	Northern Michigan	65.5	0.93	1.04	-0.11	10	-2
13	Lake Erie	66.3	0.91	1.06	-0.15	12	-1
14	Ohio Dominican	68.6	0.91	1.15	-0.25	14	0
	---	---	---	---	---
	Average	65.4	1.04

Weekly Breakdown: Week 5

Last week I posted efficiency ratings for each team in my Weekly Breakdown. Those were based on regressed shooting rates, and while I still find them to be very useful, I've elected to post the unadjusted efficiency rates. This is more telling of what actually happened. Instead, I'll be blending the regressed efficiency rates with un-regressed rates to create my Pythagorean win percentages which I will use in my match-up probabilities. All numbers are conference-only.

On to the standings.

Rk	Team	OEFF	DEFF	EM
1	Michigan Tech	1.14	0.99	0.15
2	Wayne State	1.12	0.99	0.13
3	Hillsdale	1.13	1.01	0.12
4	Findlay	1.13	1.03	0.10
5	Northwood	1.07	1.01	0.05
6	Grand Valley State	1.02	0.98	0.03
7	Ferris State	1.03	1.00	0.03
8	Ashland	1.07	1.05	0.03
9	Lake Superior State	0.99	1.04	-0.05
10	Northern Michigan	0.96	1.00	-0.05
11	Saginaw Valley State	0.95	1.00	-0.05
12	Lake Erie	0.92	1.00	-0.08
13	Tiffin	0.99	1.10	-0.11
14	Ohio Dominican	0.90	1.14	-0.24
	Average		1.03

GLIAC Breakdown

As a tempo-free advocate, I've calculated the tempo-free statistics for all of the GLIAC teams using conference-only data. Here's a good reference as to what tempo-free statistics are and why they are incredibly useful over per-game metrics.

Team	Off Eff	Def Eff	Eff Mar
Ferris State	1.11	0.99	0.12
Wayne State	1.10	1.02	0.08
Findlay	1.09	1.02	0.07
Hillsdale	1.08	1.02	0.06
Grand Valley State	1.04	1.01	0.04
Saginaw Valley State	1.02	1.00	0.02
Michigan Tech	1.07	1.06	0.01
Northwood	1.08	1.07	0.01
Ashland	1.07	1.09	-0.01
Lake Erie	0.97	0.99	-0.02
Lake Superior State	1.00	1.06	-0.06
Northern Michigan	1.00	1.07	-0.07
Tiffin	1.01	1.10	-0.10
Ohio Dominican	0.94	1.08	-0.15
Average	1.04

Off Eff = Points Scored Per Offensive Possession
Def Eff = Points Allowed Per Defensive Possession
Eff Mar = Difference Between Off Eff and Def Eff


I know that Hillsdale is 9-0 in conference play and has just one loss on the season, however my ratings are based on regressed shooting rates, as well. Because of this, Ferris gets a big boost and Hillsdale comes down due to their very good shooting rates.

Using this, I can generate probabilities of each team winning against a conference opponent. Below are those probabilities.

Away	Homes	Winner	Prob
Saginaw	Ashland	Saginaw	0.472
Northwood	Ohio Dominican	Northwood	0.218
Ferris St	Michigan Tech	Ferris St.	0.305
Grand Valley	Northern Michigan	Grand Valley	0.302
Lake State	Lake Erie	Lake Erie	0.654
Wayne State	Tiffin	Wayne State	0.200
Hillsdale	Findlay	Findlay	0.586

I've used the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to generate a predicted win percentage. Using these win percentages, I've used the Log5 method to determine the chance of each team winning. I've kicked in a 5% bonus for home court advantage -- that's just my gut feeling on how much it should be; it very well may be higher or lower than that.

Lock of the Night: Wayne State over Tiffin.
Game of the Night: Saginaw Valley at Ashland.

I'll be interested to track Hillsdale's performance for the rest of the GLIAC season to see if their overall record and tempo-free profile start to mesh.