Weekly Breakdown: Week 5

Last week I posted efficiency ratings for each team in my Weekly Breakdown. Those were based on regressed shooting rates, and while I still find them to be very useful, I've elected to post the unadjusted efficiency rates. This is more telling of what actually happened. Instead, I'll be blending the regressed efficiency rates with un-regressed rates to create my Pythagorean win percentages which I will use in my match-up probabilities. All numbers are conference-only.

On to the standings.

Rk	Team	OEFF	DEFF	EM
1	Michigan Tech	1.14	0.99	0.15
2	Wayne State	1.12	0.99	0.13
3	Hillsdale	1.13	1.01	0.12
4	Findlay	1.13	1.03	0.10
5	Northwood	1.07	1.01	0.05
6	Grand Valley State	1.02	0.98	0.03
7	Ferris State	1.03	1.00	0.03
8	Ashland	1.07	1.05	0.03
9	Lake Superior State	0.99	1.04	-0.05
10	Northern Michigan	0.96	1.00	-0.05
11	Saginaw Valley State	0.95	1.00	-0.05
12	Lake Erie	0.92	1.00	-0.08
13	Tiffin	0.99	1.10	-0.11
14	Ohio Dominican	0.90	1.14	-0.24
	Average		1.03

The Recap: January 21st

Wayne State 71, Ohio Dominican, 48

Boxscore | Recap

The Four Factors

Ohio Dominican started the contest going 2-for-20 from the field and the game got out of hand very early. It was 24-6 with just under 6:50 remaining and the Warriors never looked back. Wayne State didn't miss a ton of shots but when they did, they rebounded their own misses with fierce regularity. The Warriors forward Bryan Coleman led the way with 27 points while ODU's only scorer in double figures was Aaron Gibbs.

The Recap: January 19th

Lake Superior State 73, Lake Erie 69 

Boxscore | Recap

The Four Factors

Lake Erie had the better night shooting the basketball but Lake State's advantage on the offensive glass and in getting to the free throw line spurred the Lakers to a four point win on the road. LSSU led 40-27 at the half but let a lead slip away and wound up outscored by nine in the second half. Lakers guard Derek Billing poured in 19 points to go with four rebounds, five assists and a steal. Cameron Metz had 16 off the bench for Lake Superior as well. LEC was led by Nate Tait and Riley Thomas who each scored 17.

Scanning The Docket: January 19th

I gave a quick breakdown of how the teams are performing in a tempo-free environment yesterday, as well as listing win probabilities for each match up. Now, it's time to go a little bit more in-depth about each game on tonight's docket. Games are listed in order of start time, as found on the GLIAC website.

Saginaw Valley at Ashland - Projected Winner: Saginaw Valley, 53%
Tip-off: 7:30 PM

The cross-division game marks the first time the Cardinals and the Eagles have met this year. Ashland's sporting the sixth best offensive efficiency in the conference at 1.07 points per possession. The problem for the Eagles has been on the defensive end of the court where they are allowing the second most points per possession at 1.09. SVSU, meanwhile, sports a below-average offense with above-average defense. Teams are only scoring a point per trip against the Cardinals. Saginaw Valley, though, are only scoring 1.02 PPP, a bit below the league average of 1.04. Saginaw likes to shoot from beyond the arc but Ashland opponents have only been hitting at a 32.9% clip from deep which is below the conference average of about 35%. Ashland's been fourth-worst in GLIAC play against shots inside the arc, however, meaning if Saginaw Valley is able to get into the paint -- not something they do a lot of -- they can have some success.

GLIAC Breakdown

As a tempo-free advocate, I've calculated the tempo-free statistics for all of the GLIAC teams using conference-only data. Here's a good reference as to what tempo-free statistics are and why they are incredibly useful over per-game metrics.

Team	Off Eff	Def Eff	Eff Mar
Ferris State	1.11	0.99	0.12
Wayne State	1.10	1.02	0.08
Findlay	1.09	1.02	0.07
Hillsdale	1.08	1.02	0.06
Grand Valley State	1.04	1.01	0.04
Saginaw Valley State	1.02	1.00	0.02
Michigan Tech	1.07	1.06	0.01
Northwood	1.08	1.07	0.01
Ashland	1.07	1.09	-0.01
Lake Erie	0.97	0.99	-0.02
Lake Superior State	1.00	1.06	-0.06
Northern Michigan	1.00	1.07	-0.07
Tiffin	1.01	1.10	-0.10
Ohio Dominican	0.94	1.08	-0.15
Average	1.04

Off Eff = Points Scored Per Offensive Possession
Def Eff = Points Allowed Per Defensive Possession
Eff Mar = Difference Between Off Eff and Def Eff


I know that Hillsdale is 9-0 in conference play and has just one loss on the season, however my ratings are based on regressed shooting rates, as well. Because of this, Ferris gets a big boost and Hillsdale comes down due to their very good shooting rates.

Using this, I can generate probabilities of each team winning against a conference opponent. Below are those probabilities.

Away	Homes	Winner	Prob
Saginaw	Ashland	Saginaw	0.472
Northwood	Ohio Dominican	Northwood	0.218
Ferris St	Michigan Tech	Ferris St.	0.305
Grand Valley	Northern Michigan	Grand Valley	0.302
Lake State	Lake Erie	Lake Erie	0.654
Wayne State	Tiffin	Wayne State	0.200
Hillsdale	Findlay	Findlay	0.586

I've used the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to generate a predicted win percentage. Using these win percentages, I've used the Log5 method to determine the chance of each team winning. I've kicked in a 5% bonus for home court advantage -- that's just my gut feeling on how much it should be; it very well may be higher or lower than that.

Lock of the Night: Wayne State over Tiffin.
Game of the Night: Saginaw Valley at Ashland.

I'll be interested to track Hillsdale's performance for the rest of the GLIAC season to see if their overall record and tempo-free profile start to mesh.