Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Weekly Breakdown: Week 6

I missed last weeks previews and recaps and don't have a ton of time to do any preview this week, either. Still, here are the efficiency ratings for each team during conference play. These are not using my regressed shooting rates. Pace is possessions per game. OE is Offensive Efficiency or points scored per possession. DE is Defensive Efficiency or points allowed per possession. EM is Efficiency Margin and just the difference between OE and DE.


RkTeamPaceOEDEEMLast WkChange
1Hillsdale62.81.180.990.1932
2Wayne State63.91.150.990.1620
3Findlay66.91.161.010.1541
4Michigan Tech62.21.121.020.101-3
5Northwood65.01.051.010.0550
6Ferris State63.81.031.000.0471
7Saginaw Valley State67.91.001.000.00114
8Lake Superior State68.71.001.03-0.0291
9Ashland66.81.061.08-0.038-1
10Grand Valley State57.40.971.04-0.076-4
11Tiffin69.61.001.10-0.10132
12Northern Michigan65.50.931.04-0.1110-2
13Lake Erie66.30.911.06-0.1512-1
14Ohio Dominican68.60.911.15-0.25140
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Average65.41.04

Hillsdale - The Chargers dominated both of their games last week, trouncing Northern Michigan 89-41 and following that up with a 91-69 beat down of Michigan Tech -- both games at home.The two uber-efficient games propelled Hillsdale from third last week to first.

Wayne State - The Warriors got by the Ashland Eagles 79-71 in Detroit and then demolished Lake Erie College 92-57. That perked WSU's efficiency margin up a few ticks -- the gain being all offensive -- yet wasn't quite good enough to hold off Hillsdale for the number one spot.

Findlay - After beating Lake Erie 80-55 last Thursday, Findlay would dominate Ashland by 30, 79-49 with both games at home.  Both games were good enough to jump Findlay up one spot in this weeks efficiency rankings.Their offense improved 0.03 and their defense improved by 0.02 -- pretty, pretty good.

Michigan Tech - The Huskies had the biggest fall among the top four teams, dropping from first place last week with an efficiency margin of +0.15 down to +0.10 and fourth place. Tech had a narrow 66-62 win on the road against Northwood on Thursday and then were taken to task by the now-first-place Chargers of Hillsdale.

Northwood - The Timberwolves remain in fifth with a 0.05 EM which equaled their total last week. They had the aforementioned close up-set against Michigan Tech at home and followed it up with a 64-58 win against Northern Michigan.

Ferris State - The Bulldogs move up one spot from last week after their 65-57 win against rival Grand Valley State. Their movement has more to do with teams like Grand Valley falling than anything else. Still, good for Ferris.

Saginaw Valley State  - The Cardinals are the biggest movers (in the right direction, at least) jumping four spots from 11th to seventh. SVSU started with an 88-74 loss to Tiffin at home but followed it up with a huge 102-64 deconstruction of Ohio Dominican.

Lake Superior State - LSSU slides up a spot after sweeping their games last week. They started with a 71-66 win over Ohio Dominican (rough weekend for the Panthers) and capped it off with a 76-70 win over Tiffin University.

Ashland - The Eagles drop a spot after an eight-point loss at Wayne State and a dismal 30-point loss to Findlay.

Grand Valley State - GVSU is the biggest mover -- in the wrong direction -- of the week, dropping four spots to 10th. They lost their only contest to their rivals Ferris State in Big Rapids. Nothing to be ashamed of. Their slide is really more reflective of not being that far removed from the two teams immediately in front of them.

Tiffin - The Dragons split their two contests last week -- winning at Saginaw Valley and dropping their game at Lake State -- and despite that they moved up a couple spots because. . .

Northern Michigan - . . .the Wildcats were demolished by 48-points at the hands of Hillsdale and then dropped one to Northwood by eight.

Lake Erie - The Storm dropped one spot from last week after losing by 25 to Findlay and then by 35 to Wayne State.

Ohio Dominican - The Panthers slate started off promising, losing by five at Lake State but then it got ugly. The 102-64 shallacking by Saginaw Valley dropped ODU's efficiency margin slightly from their -0.24 to -0.25. That is still far and away the worst in conference play. Regressing shooting rates helps them move up to -0.14 EM, but that is still 0.05 behind anyone else.

Game Projections

Thursday's Games 
Lake Superior State at Ferris State -  Projected Winner: Ferris State, 82.5%
Saginaw Valley State at Grand Valley State - Projected Winner: Saginaw, 60.2%
Wayne State at Northern Michigan - Projected Winner: Wayne State, 81.2%
Findlay at Michigan Tech - Projected Winner: Findlay, 59.5%
Ashland at Ohio Dominican - Projected Winner: Ashland, 72.9%

Saturday's Games
Hillsdale at Northwood - Projected Winner: Hillsdale, 61.9%
Wayne State at Michigan Tech - Projected Winner: Wayne State, 59.8%
Lake Superior State at Grand Valley State - Projected Winner: LSSU, 51.4%
Saginaw Valley State at Ferris State - Projected Winner: Ferris State, 74.1%
Ohio Dominican at Lake Erie - Projected Winner: Lake Erie, 75.2%
Tiffin at Ashland - Projected Winner: Ashland, 75.8%
Findlay at Northern Michigan - Projected Winner: Findlay, 81.1%

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