On to the standings.
| Rk | Team | OEFF | DEFF | EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Tech | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.15 |
| 2 | Wayne State | 1.12 | 0.99 | 0.13 |
| 3 | Hillsdale | 1.13 | 1.01 | 0.12 |
| 4 | Findlay | 1.13 | 1.03 | 0.10 |
| 5 | Northwood | 1.07 | 1.01 | 0.05 |
| 6 | Grand Valley State | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.03 |
| 7 | Ferris State | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.03 |
| 8 | Ashland | 1.07 | 1.05 | 0.03 |
| 9 | Lake Superior State | 0.99 | 1.04 | -0.05 |
| 10 | Northern Michigan | 0.96 | 1.00 | -0.05 |
| 11 | Saginaw Valley State | 0.95 | 1.00 | -0.05 |
| 12 | Lake Erie | 0.92 | 1.00 | -0.08 |
| 13 | Tiffin | 0.99 | 1.10 | -0.11 |
| 14 | Ohio Dominican | 0.90 | 1.14 | -0.24 |
| Average | 1.03 |
Michigan Tech Huskies - The Huskies split their games last week against Ferris (win) and Grand Valley (loss). They boast the conference's most efficient offense scoring 1.14 points per possession. Oh, and they aren't too shabby on the defensive end of the court where their 0.99 defensive efficiency is second best.
Tempo Free Treat: The Huskies, relative to the total number of Field Goals Attempted, take the most threes in the conference. They're chucking up a long-ball almost 41% of the time.
Wayne State Warriors - The Warriors had a bad loss on Thursday at Tiffin but bounced back with a throttling of the only team worse than Tiffin, Ohio Dominican. No one rebounds offensively like WSU which allows them to extend possessions and even though their 2-point shooting percentage isn't off-the-charts good, their second (and sometimes third) possessions in a row offensively allow for a higher volume of shots to score.
Tempo Free Treat: The Bulldogs are rebounding 37.5% of their own misses which is a 121 OR+. On this scale, 100 is league average meaning Wayne State is 21% better than the rest of the conference on the offensive glass.
Hillsdale Chargers - So, the Chargers actually lead the conference standings a 9-1, but haven't played substantially better than the schools mentioned above. You don't have to squint hard to see a regular season division (and conference) crown for Hillsdale. They can score the basketball efficiently and they can defend at an above-average level.
Tempo Free Treat: No one in the GLIAC gets assists more than Hillsdale. The Chargers are credited with an assist on almost 70% of their buckets.
Findlay Oilers - Findlay's going for their fourth-straight GLIAC regular season title and are in position to get it. Their efficiency margin (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) puts them in the neighborhood of the three schools above them. Their 7-3 record puts them right in there, too.
Tempo Free Treat: The Oilers don't foul at an extreme rate and it's a good thing that they don't. Findlay's opponents have shot 75.6% from the free throw line this year which is about 7% better than conference average. Given teams don't have control over how well their opponents do at the charity stripe, this is some bad luck that is costing Findlay about a point-per-game.
Northwood Timberwolves - This is where we see the first major separation among the teams. Northwood's EM is half that of the team directly above them, and while anything can happen, I'd look for the Ferris and Michigan Tech to pull away from them in the North Division.
Tempo Free Treat: After Michigan Tech and Findlay, no one is better thus far inside the arc than Northwood. The get it done by being the second best offensive rebounding team in the conference after Wayne State.
Grand Valley State Lakers - GVSU's offense is nothing to right home about. It's basically conference average but the Lakers are very sound defensively. In fact, they boast the best defensive efficiency in the conference and combined with their slow tempo, they are constantly a threat to win any game they play.
Tempo Free Treat: The Lakers are averaging 60.4 possessions per game which is about five less than the GLIAC average of 65.7.
Ferris State Bulldogs - Ferris completed a split on their Upper Peninsula swing last week, losing at Michigan Tech but scoring a 14-point win over Northern Michigan in Marquette. They are doing well on defense but I think they could take the next step if they quit their seemingly incessant fouling.
Tempo Free Treat: Ferris State is giving up a league-average 1.27 points per net possession -- defensive possessions minus turnovers. They benefit from their fantastic steal percentage which is a 133 STL+, second in the conference.
Ashland University Eagles - Ashland can score with almost anyone in the conference. Their 1.07 PPP is right there with Northwood. Unfortunately, they are giving up 1.05 PPP on the defensive end, too. Thankfully they don't foul much defensively or it could be much worse. They have a Free Throw Rate on defense of 0.319. Their defensive FTR+ is 80 where 100 is conference average. Here, the lower the better.
Tempo Free Treat: Their FTR+ is about the only thing they do well defensively. They don't force turnovers nor do they rebound at an above-average rate. They are likely better served at taking more risks defensively for steals and turnovers and sacrificing some of their fouling advantage.
Lake Superior State Lakers - The Lakers from the North starts what I call the Second Separation. They're the first team on the list with a negative efficiency margin at -0.05. They have a below-average offense but it's better than the teams they are in a virtual tie with below them. Unfortunately, they are giving up 1.05 PPP defensively which is a bit worse than average.
Tempo Free Treat: Lake State's propensity to foul defensively kills their chances at stealing games. They have a FTR+ of 140 which is worst in the conference. Second worse is GVSU's 125. Yikes.
Northern Michigan Wildcats - NMU scores less efficiently than LSSU but they also are better on the defensive end of the court. They post a solid 1.00 defensive efficiency but only score at a 0.96 rate. That's actually the fourth-worst offensive efficiency in the conference.
Tempo Free Treat: NMU is the second most interior-orientated team in the GLIAC after Wayne State. They don't score efficiently inside and they cannot hang on to the basketball. They have a TO% of 23.8%. That works out to a TO+ of 123, worst in the GLIAC.
Saginaw Valley State Cardinals - SVSU's defense isn't the problem as opponents are only scoring at a 0.99 PPP clip. Offensively, they struggle to score the basketball and that is due to their dreadful 27.6% mark from behind the arc. That's a 3P%+ of 91, worst in the conference.
Tempo Free Treat: The Cardinals have a TO+ of 105 and a FTR+ of 87. They do a remarkable job in not fouling yet forcing turnovers at an above-average rate.
Lake Erie College Storm - LEC boasts the second-worst offensive attack in conference play, netting a 0.92 PPP. Again, they have above-average defense but anemic 3-point shooting, turnover problems, and a lack of rebounding doom the Storm each time they possess the ball.
Tempo Free Treat: Lake Erie poses quite the challenge for opposing offenses. Their defense forces a ton of miscues as their TO+ is 124, tops in the conference. That's on the back of a STL+ of 142!
Tiffin University Dragons - Tiffin isn't a good offensive team, but they're better than the teams that surround them. Still, the Dragons get into one-sided shootouts which see their opponents burning up the net.
Tempo Free Treat: The Dragons block the most shots in the conference with a BLK+ of 188. Next highest is Hillsdale's 137.
Ohio Dominican Unversity Panthers - ODU possess the worst offense (0.90) and the worst defense (1.14). They aren't winless bad but they're close. I have them at around 2-9 more than 0-11.
Tempo Free Treat: My regressed shooting numbers help ODU perhaps the most of any team in the conference. Regressed shooting has ODU with an offensive efficiency of 0.93 and defensive efficiency of 1.08. They still have the worst efficiency margin at -0.14 but they are closer to the Tiffin Dragons who are right above them at -0.10 with regression factored in. As I said, worst in the conference but not that bad.
No comments:
Post a Comment