I gave a quick breakdown of how the teams are performing in a tempo-free environment yesterday, as well as listing win probabilities for each match up. Now, it's time to go a little bit more in-depth about each game on tonight's docket. Games are listed in order of start time, as found on the GLIAC website.
Saginaw Valley at Ashland - Projected Winner: Saginaw Valley, 53%
Tip-off: 7:30 PM
The cross-division game marks the first time the Cardinals and the Eagles have met this year. Ashland's sporting the sixth best offensive efficiency in the conference at 1.07 points per possession. The problem for the Eagles has been on the defensive end of the court where they are allowing the second most points per possession at 1.09. SVSU, meanwhile, sports a below-average offense with above-average defense. Teams are only scoring a point per trip against the Cardinals. Saginaw Valley, though, are only scoring 1.02 PPP, a bit below the league average of 1.04. Saginaw likes to shoot from beyond the arc but Ashland opponents have only been hitting at a 32.9% clip from deep which is below the conference average of about 35%. Ashland's been fourth-worst in GLIAC play against shots inside the arc, however, meaning if Saginaw Valley is able to get into the paint -- not something they do a lot of -- they can have some success.
Northwood at Ohio Dominican -Projected Winner: Northwood, 78%
Tip-off 7:30
I've projected Ohio Dominican to be better than their 0-9 conference start -- that's mostly due to my preference at regressing shooting rates which will always bring up the laggards and bring down the leaders -- but their 2-7 projected record still puts them in the basement of the GLIAC as a whole. They feature the league's worst offense and third-worst defense. Northwood, on the other hand has the fifth best offense in the GLIAC but do struggle to get stops. The Timberwolves are in the upper-third of the conference in the amount of three's they jack up, yet they hit almost the same amount percentage-wise as the Panthers. Normally teams that are happily taking three's don't rebound the ball well offensively, yet Northwood's grabbing 36% of their misses which is third-best in the conference. They should dominate on the offensive glass and their paltry three-point percentage should see a nice spike against a bad defensive team in Ohio Dominican.
Ferris State at Michigan Tech - Projected Winner: Ferris State, 70%
Tip-off 7:30
Ferris and Michigan Tech have met up once already with the Huskies downing the Bulldogs 77-64 in Big Rapids, Michigan. Huskies forward Ali Haidar scored 17 on just nine shots while pulling down 12 rebounds (all defensive), dishing out out three assists and blocking two shots. Ferris is going to have to control the paint better to win the rematch in Houghton tonight while on the Upper Peninsula swing. Ferris had four guys in double figures in the first game but no one else with more than seven. Michigan Tech only fired off 11 three's in their first match up which made up just 27% of all their shots in that game, far below their average in conference play where the Huskies have fired up a three nearly two out of every five shots they take. I'd look for Ferris to do what it does well: get to the free throw line, control the glass, and force turnovers.
Grand Valley State at Northern Michigan - Projected Winner: Grand Valley, 70%
Tip-off 7:30
The Lakers enter this game riding a three-game conference losing streak as they make the reverse Upper Peninsula trip as Ferris. GVSU disposed of NMU in Allendale 67-60. Northern Michigan got 16 from Haki Stampley and 15 from DeAndre Taylor, but not much else from the rest of the squad. Grand Valley had an excellent shooting night from center Nick Waddell which resulted in 21 points on 6-of-10 shooting (3-for-3 from behind the arc) and perfect 6-for-6 from the free throw line. Waddell also grabbed 10 rebounds (five offensive) before fouling out in 25 minutes of action. My numbers have GVSU as the fifth best team and NMU as third-worst in the GLIAC, so GVSU should still come out with the win by doing what they do best: spread the ball around, don't turn it over and crash the offensive glass. Northern can hang in there if they don't foul often as they play decent on-ball defense and contesting shots.
Lake Superior State at Lake Erie - Projected Winner: Lake Erie, 65%
Tip-off 8:00
In the battle of the Lakes -- and a cross-division game -- the Lakers of Lake State take on the Storm of Lake Erie. The offenses are close with LSSU scoring 1.00 points per possession while Erie is scoring 0.97. What gives the Storm the edge is their very good defense. Lake Erie allows just 0.99 points per possession while LSSU is giving up 1.06. In fact, Erie's defense is just fractionally behind Ferris State's for tops in the conference. Lake State is going to have to avoid turning the ball over to have a shot in this game. Erie forces the most turnovers in the conference as teams cough up the basketball a quarter of their offensive possessions. Unfortunately for LSSU is that the Lakers are a bit below-average in handling the basketball. I'll be interested to see how LSSU shoots inside the arc tonight. They aren't a good two-point shooting team and Lake Erie's opponents have feasted inside when the arc when they take the opportunity. The Storm are allowing opponents to shoot 56.4% from two which is the worst in the conference. They make up for it, however, by forcing their opponents into miscues with their pressure defense.
Wayne State at Tiffin - Projected Winner: Wayne State, 80%
Tip-off 8:00
The Warriors beat Tiffin in Detroit back on December 17th, 82-70. It capped off a 5-0 start for WSU in the GLIAC and then the wheels fell off. Two non-conference losses and then three in-conference losses (two to Hillsdale) saw Wayne State drop five in a row before snapping their skid at home against Findlay. Cole Prophet and Stacey Waters combined to go 8-for-19 from deep and 50 points for Wayne State in the first game against Tiffin. The Dragons got 23 from Joe Graessle and 22 from Keenan Barlow but not much else from the rest of the team. Wayne State feasts off of some of the league's best offensive rebounding which leads them to be one of the best teams at scoring inside the arc. Tiffin will try to push the tempo of the game while Wayne State will look to slow it down. What works against the Dragons are two things: they don't force many turnovers and Wayne State doesn't turn the ball over. That will make it hard for Tiffin to push the tempo to where they want it in their hopes of taking the Warriors out of their element. Wayne State shouldn't have a problem disposing of Tiffin.
Hillsdale at Findlay - Projected Winner: Findlay, 59%
Tip-off 8:00
Keep in mind that in my win projections, home teams get a 5% boost meaning on a neutral court these teams are pretty damn even. The Chargers are 9-0 in GLIAC play including a 75-69 win at home against Findlay in early December. The Oilers got 20 points, four rebounds, five assists and two steals from guard Kyle Caiola, but had just one other scorer in double figures. Hillsdale, meanwhile, picked up four in double figures, led by forward Brent Eaton's 19 points on 6-of-9 shooting (3-for-4 from downtown). This game features the third and fourth-best offenses in conference play and Findlay gets the edge slightly for having a marginally better offense while the two clubs are equal defensively. Hillsdale will look to push the tempo a bit more than Findlay will and they do so by shooting more three's than their opponents do. Findlay, however, has no problem shooting three's either with both teams shooting upwards of one out of every three times from behind the arc. Hillsdale does a great job inside the arc defensively which and they don't give up chances at free points via the foul, either. Somehow, the Oilers are going to have to score inside the three point line consistently and force Hillsdale into turning the ball over and contest as many shots as possible. This is the game that will draw my keenest interest despite the Saginaw-Ashland match-up being the biggest 'toss up.'
No comments:
Post a Comment